AppMagic‘s latest data shows that no more than 1% of games reach $100K in-app revenue per month, meaning thousands of titles “fail” every year.
The same holds for Hybridcasual and Hypercasual. Even with a lower benchmark of 100K installs per month, 5% of games at most manage to reach it.
This guide will help you decide when to pivot, how to adjust your game, and when to move on.
When to pivot
There are many signs that signal you in the right direction. Here are the major ones.
- CPI higher than LTV: If getting new players costs more than what they spend in the game, your monetization isn’t working.
- Tutorial conversion: If fewer than 75% of players finish the tutorial, it may be confusing. A low number means players don’t understand how to play.
- First Payment conversion: Measure it in the first week. If few players spend money early on, it’s a sign they aren’t interested in your in-game purchases.
- Low cumulative ARPU: If the average revenue per user remains low even with UA campaigns, the game’s economy or engagement loop needs a rethink. Besides, in the beginning, the quality of your audience may vary: first week’s beginners and mature users after one week are not quite the same.
- Day 0 Retention Rate: It shows the share of users that return to the game in the next 24 hours after first joining the game. It helps understand the challenges faster.
- Day 1 / Day 7 / Day 30 Retention Rates: If your Day 1 retention is below 40%, Day 7 below 15%, and Day 30 under 7% (these vary, however), it means players aren’t staying long enough to justify further investment, and changes are needed.
- Player feedback and low engagement rates after updates are also massive marketing signs.
Many developers keep working on a game even when it’s failing because of these two common mistakes
- Focusing on small changes instead of big improvements: UI tweaks and balance updates won’t fix a game if its core mechanics or market fit are wrong.
- Emotional attachment (sunk cost fallacy): Developers don’t want to give up after spending months, let alone years, on their game.
How to pivot the right way
If your game isn’t performing well, you don’t always have to start from scratch. There are two ways to pivot—or two scales to pivoting, so to speak:
- Minor pivots are small changes to monetization, gameplay, or art while keeping the core mechanics the same.
- Major pivots involve bigger changes, like switching game genres, targeting a new audience, or rebranding.
When to walk away
A structured pivot timeline can prevent wasted resources. In the first 4 to 6 weeks, focus on A/B testing monetization changes and minor gameplay tweaks. By month 3, analyze retention and LTV trends. If key KPIs remain low by month 6, consider a major pivot or moving on to a new project.
Discover how to pivot successfully
Visit AppMagic’s official blog to learn how to successfully pivot your game or decide to kill it and start a new project.
